President Donald Trump is in Beijing this week for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the agenda is already pressing on two of the most volatile issues in the relationship: Iran and Taiwan. Trump has called Xi both an adversary and a friend, but the war in Iran is fueling unrest at home and putting fresh pressure on the president to show he can move Beijing.
China has continued to buy Iranian oil, despite Trump’s push for a negotiated end to the war, and the Treasury Department has ramped up sanctions on Chinese banks and refineries. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading the pressure campaign, while a senior U.S. official said Trump has spoken “multiple times” with Xi about China’s purchasing of oil and other goods from Iran. Trump himself said on May 5 that he suggested Xi redirect Chinese oil tankers toward U.S. ports, telling reporters: “Send your ships to Texas. It’s not that much further. Send your ships to Louisiana. Send your ships to Alaska.” He added, “Alaska is actually very close to a lot of the Asian countries.”
That pitch captured the bluntness of Trump’s approach, but it also underscored the limits of his leverage. Analysts are skeptical the meetings will yield a breakthrough on Iran. Derek Scissors said, “I really don’t see much U.S. pressure coming,” and added that China has an obvious interest in seeing the war settled and the Strait of Hormuz kept open, giving Beijing an incentive even without American pressure.
The Iran dispute is colliding with a separate fight over Taiwan, where the diplomatic stakes are just as high. In an April 30 call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Wang Yi called Taiwan the “biggest risk” in China-U.S. relations and said he hoped the U.S. would make the “right choice.” Wang met publicly with his Iranian counterpart before the summit, a reminder of how closely Beijing is tying its Middle East and cross-strait interests together as Trump arrives.
Trump and Xi last met in South Korea in October, and neither the U.S. nor Chinese readout from that meeting mentioned Taiwan. Less than two months later, Congress approved an estimated $11.15 billion arms sale for Taiwan, and China strongly rebuked it. Trump said Monday in the Oval Office that he would discuss U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, saying, “I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi.” He added, “President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion.”
That makes the Beijing talks less a reset than a test. Xi is unlikely to give ground on Iranian oil while Washington is tightening sanctions, and China sees the trip as a chance to push its view of Taiwan back toward the center of the relationship. The most immediate question is whether Trump leaves Beijing with anything more than another promise to keep talking.
