Iren stock has fallen more than 50% as investors look past its blistering run-up and fixate on capital raises and the lack of a new deal. The shares are down 54% from their all-time high, erasing much of a rally that carried them from $5 to $76 in less than a year.
The decline has left Iren with an $11 billion market value even as the company keeps expanding its artificial intelligence footprint. In November, it announced a five-year, $9.7 billion agreement with Microsoft covering 200 megawatts of capacity at its AI data center, a contract that works out to $1.94 billion per year. The company also secured a 1.6 gigawatt site in Oklahoma in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, which ended Dec. 31, 2025, bringing its total pipeline to more than 4.5 gigawatts.
That pipeline is the reason bulls still argue the business has room to grow. Iren says it can support more than 20 additional deals like the Microsoft contract, which could eventually translate into more than $40 billion in annual recurring revenue. It has also entered into a purchase agreement for more than 50,000 Nvidia chips and lined up $3.6 billion in GPU financing related to the Microsoft contract at a 6% APR.
But the market is no longer rewarding promise alone. Iren has an at-the-market equity program of up to $6 billion, a structure that could dilute half of its shares, and that has become a central concern for investors watching a capital-intensive industry. The company still has the gigawatts, the land and the AI data centers that underpin its growth story, but it now has to prove it can keep signing deals without leaning too hard on its balance sheet.
The question is not whether Iren has assets to build on. It is whether it can turn those assets into enough new contracts fast enough to keep the market from punishing every capital raise along the way.
