Apple’s long-rumored Iphone Fold could upend the North American foldable market in its first year, with Counterpoint Research projecting the device would capture 46% of sales. The forecast also points to a sharp hit for Samsung, whose share is seen falling from 51% in 2025 to 29% in 2026.
The numbers matter because Samsung has dominated foldables since the category came to fruition, and Apple has not yet released its own foldable phone. If the forecast holds, the shift would put immense pressure on Motorola and Google as well, giving Apple a fast entry into a market that has so far been shaped by Samsung’s lead.
Samsung’s advantage is not small. The company already has seven generations of experience designing book-style foldables, and its Galaxy Z Fold 7 was described as svelte when unfolded and lightweight in build. The next model in that line, the Galaxy Z Fold 8, is the obvious benchmark Apple would have to beat if it wants the Iphone Fold to land as more than a curiosity.
That is where the strain shows. Apple is rumored to be aiming for a creaseless design, a detail that could help it stand apart if the phone arrives as expected, but it also raises the bar for execution in a market where Samsung’s design lead has been built over several generations. The Pixel 10 Pro Fold, meanwhile, was said to pale in comparison to the Galaxy Z Fold 7, which suggests the competition already has a steep climb before Apple even enters the field.
The forecast is less a victory lap for Apple than a warning shot for everyone else. Samsung has held the center of the foldable market for years, but Counterpoint’s projection suggests the first iPhone Fold could compress that lead quickly and force rivals to defend share from the moment Apple steps in.
