US stock futures fell on Tuesday as investors waited for the April consumer inflation reading, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.7% and S&P 500 futures off roughly 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were broadly flat ahead of a report that could set the tone for trading after Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report. Traders were also watching the latest update on how inflation is moving, with the CPI report expected to show headline prices rose 3.7% in April, according to a preview of the data in CPI Report Expected to Show Inflation Near Three-Year High on Tuesday.
The market backdrop turned rougher as President Trump was set to begin a trip to China on Tuesday and meet President Xi Jinping, with trade and AI expected to top the agenda. Trump invited 16 top executives to join him, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook. The trip comes as investors weigh whether a stronger energy shock could spill into the broader economy and complicate the inflation picture.
Oil prices surged in early trading. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.7% to above $101 a barrel, while Brent crude futures climbed 3.4% to nearly $108 a barrel; the international benchmark was also up 3.2% to trade above $107 per barrel. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained essentially halted on Tuesday morning, keeping a critical chokepoint for global energy flows under strain and adding to pressure on gasoline and other prices. For markets already rattled by war-driven energy shocks, the move echoed the worries captured in S&P 500 Index slips as Iran tensions lift oil prices and inflation fears.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Monday the world is set to lose 100 million barrels of oil supply each day the war continues, a warning that helped explain the rush into crude. The US government also released 53.3 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve on Tuesday as part of an agreement coordinated with the IEA to release 172 million barrels in total. Even so, gasoline pump prices averaged $4.50 per gallon nationally on Tuesday, leaving consumers with little relief and keeping attention fixed on whether war, oil and prices are now feeding one another. That dynamic has been at the center of recent market anxiety, alongside the concerns laid out in Inflation News: Trump blames corporate greed as war jolts prices and gas stations.
The tension in Washington and the Middle East is what gives the inflation report its force today. On Monday, Trump said the Iranian response received by the White House was “garbage” and called the ceasefire agreement on “life support,” language that underscored how fragile the situation has become. Kuwait’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs described one move as a “flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the State of Kuwait.” With stocks soft, oil higher and the CPI due, investors are no longer just asking whether prices rose in April; they are trying to gauge how much further the latest energy shock can reach.
