0.3%: the dow jones industrial average gained on Monday as US stocks moved higher ahead of President Trump’s deadline. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely at a standstill. President Trump extended the deadline to Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET and warned "failure to reach a deal would trigger attacks on bridges and power infrastructure."
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Moves
0.4%: the S&P 500 rose on Monday, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. A report that Iran and the US have received a plan for an end to attacks from Pakistan and another saying the two sides and international mediators are pressing for a 45-day halt helped lift risk assets. Over the weekend, the president had threatened "further strikes on Iran," and that backdrop left markets trading on a narrow set of geopolitical headlines rather than fundamentals.
Brent Crude Near $109
around $109 per barrel: Brent crude climbed in afternoon trade as US crude futures rose above $112 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures gained more than 1% to reach that level. The supply shock risk is amplified because roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the waterway remains effectively blocked for US-allied vessels, making oil-sensitive sectors and inflation gauges vulnerable.
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JPMorgan Gasoline Price Risk
nearly $4.12: the national average price of gasoline climbed to nearly $4.12 on Monday, with California at $5.92 per gallon and San Francisco already at $6 per gallon. JPMorgan strategists Joyce Chang and Natasha Kaneva wrote that US retail gasoline prices have already increased to close to $4/gallon, and the bank's commodity team sees a risk of gasoline prices exceeding $5/gallon if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed by mid-April. Those moves translate to roughly $0.80 higher than a month ago and $0.87 higher than a year ago for the national average and feed directly into consumer inflation measures.
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Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET: President Trump’s extended deadline is the market pivot. If Iran reopens transit through the Strait of Hormuz by that time, oil and gasoline-price pressure should ease; if not, the prospect of strikes on infrastructure and continued closure will likely push crude and pump prices higher and keep US stocks sensitive to incoming energy and inflation data. Traders and consumers should plan for volatile oil and gasoline prints this week tied to that outcome.
