Dimers projected on Wednesday that Flavio Cobolli is more likely to beat Alexander Blockx at the ATP Monte Carlo, Monaco Men's Singles 2026. The predictive model ran 10,000 simulations and gave Cobolli a 61% win probability, compared with 39% for Blockx.
The forecast comes from a betting prediction piece and does not report a result or any on-court performance. It instead offers a numbers-driven view of the matchup, with the model leaning toward Cobolli in the Monte Carlo event.
For Blockx, the figure is not a result but a snapshot of the market view entering the match. For Cobolli, it is a modeled edge built from Dimers' 10,000-run simulation, enough to make him the clear favorite in this projection and the player the model expects to advance.
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That leaves the only question that matters after the numbers: whether the match follows the forecast, or whether Blockx turns a 39% chance into the kind of result that betting models are built to miss.
