NOAA will release its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday at 9 a.m., giving forecasters’ first full look at a season that could end up near average or slightly below average in total storm numbers. Even so, warm water in the Gulf and Atlantic and a growing signal for El Niño later this summer could pull the forecast in opposite directions.
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, and early signals suggest 2026 may come in close to those marks or a little below them. Warm sea surface temperatures typically support storm development and intensification, but El Niño tends to increase wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf, and that can disrupt storm organization and limit how many systems strengthen.
The forecast matters most for the Gulf Coast and Southeast Texas, where even a season that looks quieter on paper can turn dangerous quickly. The rule that keeps coming back in hurricane seasons is simple: it only takes one storm to make a big impact.
That is why Thursday’s outlook will be watched less as a clean prediction than as a warning about the range of what 2026 could bring. If El Niño strengthens later this summer into peak season, it could cut against the warming signal in the ocean. If it does not, the warmer waters alone would leave more room for storms to build. Either way, the first official outlook is likely to frame a season that is not expected to be extreme overall, but still carries real risk where it matters most.
