ExxonMobil shares have climbed more than 60% over the past 12 months, beating the S&P 500's 30% gain as investors pressed higher on a company that is still growing its oil, gas and chemicals business across more than 56 countries. The stock was priced at $165 in the article, valued at 20 times this year's earnings and offering a forward yield of 2.6%.
That combination reflects a company that has kept delivering. ExxonMobil's EPS grew at a 6% CAGR from 2021 to 2025, and analysts expect earnings to increase at a 14% CAGR from 2025 to 2028. The company has also raised its payout for 43 consecutive years, giving income investors a record they can measure against the stock's recent run.
The next leg of growth is tied to production, especially in the Permian Basin and Guyana. ExxonMobil expects its Permian operations to produce up to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day by 2030, up from average daily production of 1.6 million barrels in 2025. In Guyana, it plans to increase output from 700,000 barrels a day in 2025 to 1.3 million barrels in 2027.
Those targets matter because a roughly a fifth of ExxonMobil's oil and gas production still comes from the Middle East, and the stock's gains have come as escalating conflict there and other macro headwinds pushed oil prices higher. Rising crude helps ExxonMobil's upstream profits, but it can also squeeze the margins of its downstream refining operations, which is the tradeoff that sits underneath the rally in xom stock.
ExxonMobil is more than an oil producer. It also runs downstream refining and marketing operations and makes plastics and petrochemicals, while expanding its liquefied natural gas, chemical and low-carbon businesses. If oil prices stay elevated, analysts' 2027 estimates are met and the same forward multiple holds, the stock could rise another 10% over the next 12 months. For now, the market is treating ExxonMobil as a company that can keep paying, keep producing and keep growing at the same time.
