Frances Tiafoe is projected to beat Terence Atmane when they meet in the round of 64 at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters on Monday. Dimers’ advanced tennis model gives Tiafoe a 56% chance to win the match and a 54% chance to take the first set.
The match is scheduled to begin at 5:00 AM ET, giving bettors an early look at one of Monday’s ATP Monte-Carlo Masters matchups. The preview is built from simulations run by Dimers’ advanced tennis model, which also sees Atmane covering the +2.5 games spread 53% of the time and the under 22.5 games landing at 51%.
That split makes the matchup more competitive than the straight moneyline numbers suggest. Tiafoe is the most likely winner, but the games market is tighter, and the model’s lean toward Atmane +2.5 points to a match that could stay close if the sets run short.
Still, the article’s tennis best bets list Atmane as the top play on the match, a sign that the betting view is not fully aligned with the win probability. For a round of 64 meeting in Monte-Carlo, that is the core question for Monday morning: whether Tiafoe’s edge in the simulations is enough to separate him from an opponent the model also expects to keep the scoreline within reach.
