Matteo Berrettini was backed to beat Roberto Bautista Agut in an early match at the 2026 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters on Tuesday, April 7, with the pick coming as the tournament got underway at the Monte-Carlo Country Club.
The call leaned on Berrettini’s profile as a player built for clay. He earned an impressive three-set win over Alexander Zverev at this event last year, and the source said his 2021 Wimbledon run still makes him an underrated clay performer. On slower courts, Berrettini gets more time on the ball, and his big, heavy forehand can help him control points. His booming serve was seen as enough to carry him past Bautista Agut, who was described as a little overrated on this surface.
The timing matters because Berrettini and Bautista Agut were lined up very early in the United States, leaving little room for a wait-and-see approach. The source said the match would answer quickly whether the second pick of the day mattered, which is part of the appeal in a tournament where the clay should sharpen the difference between a power server and a steady defender.
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The Monte-Carlo card also included other plays, with Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast listed at a 2026 ATP/WTA record of 321-363 and -6.47 units. Norrie was priced at +1.5 sets at -136 and on the moneyline at +195, with 0.5 units attached to that look, while Ruud was being looked to get to -115 against Popyrin. Those side calls put Berrettini in a broader slate of clay picks, but the main case was simple: the conditions in Monte-Carlo suit him, and the matchup with Bautista Agut was viewed as one he should be able to handle.
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That leaves Berrettini with a chance to turn a favorable surface read into an early result, and to do it in one of the week’s first matches rather than after the field has settled in.
