Colombia's government circulated a draft decree on Monday that would raise import tariffs on a wide range of goods from Ecuador to 50 percent, matching the level Ecuador began applying to Colombian imports on March 1. The measure is not yet in force, and the draft says it would take effect the day after it is published.
The proposed change would hit a trade relationship worth about $2.3 billion in 2025, with Colombia exporting about $1.7 billion in goods to Ecuador last year. Under Colombia's own draft, if both countries keep tariffs at 50 percent, Colombia's exports would fall by 79 percent, or roughly $1.452 million, while its imports of Ecuadorian goods would drop by 75 percent, or about $640 million.
The draft was opened for public comment before final signature, but the numbers in it show how far the dispute has already moved beyond symbolic retaliation. Earlier reciprocal measures had reached 30 percent, and reporting in late February said business groups in both countries denounced the escalation, warned it could disrupt roughly $65 million in monthly trade and said at least 40,000 Ecuadorian jobs could be at risk.
Colombia says Ecuador's March 1 tariff move violates tariff-free commitments under the Cartagena Agreement, and the draft also cites the most favored nation rule under GATT 1944. Ecuador has defended its tariff hikes as tied to border insecurity and drug trafficking. reported that Quito said it would raise tariffs from 30 to 50 percent amid rising tension over border security and illicit trafficking, and that the dispute has been accompanied by retaliatory steps beyond tariffs.
What happens next now depends on whether Colombia turns the draft into a final decree. If it does, the tariff fight between the neighboring countries will move from a warning shot to a full trade barrier, with damage already laid out in Colombia's own paperwork.
