Robert W. Baird kept Outperform ratings on Tesla and Rivian after both automakers posted first-quarter updates that left investors looking past the delivery headline and into the details. Ben Kallo cut Tesla’s price target to $538 from $548, while also reiterating an Outperform rating on Rivian with a $23 target.
Tesla said quarterly growth was 6.3%, but the company still fell short of Wall Street expectations. Its energy deployments reached 8.8 GWh, well below Baird’s estimate of 13.2 GWh and the Street’s 14.4 GWh forecast. For investors, that shortfall mattered more than the delivery side, which Baird described as broadly in line with expectations. The energy segment was the negative surprise, and Baird said it is drawing more attention from investors than deliveries.
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Rivian’s Q1 deliveries came in about 4% below consensus estimates, though volumes still rose roughly 6% from the previous quarter and about 20% from a year earlier. The company kept its full-year delivery guidance unchanged at 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles. Kallo said he expects Q1 to mark the low point for Rivian’s year and sees production and deliveries improving as the R2 platform launches in Q2 and ramps through the rest of 2026.
The latest moves come as analysts continue to see limited consensus enthusiasm for both names. TipRanks’ Stock Comparison tool showed Tesla and Rivian each carrying a Hold rating from analysts. Rivian’s average target of $17.59 implies about 14.2% upside, while Tesla’s average target of $394.36 points to roughly 9.4% upside. For now, both stocks are still being judged less on one quarter’s numbers than on whether the next phase of growth can arrive fast enough to change the story — whether that is Tesla’s energy business or the next chapter in a byd electric car market that keeps forcing automakers to prove their pace.
