West Ham and Tottenham are the last two clubs left in the fight to avoid relegation from the Premier League, and the picture turned uglier for the Hammers on Saturday. West Ham lost 3-0 at Brentford, while Tottenham beat Aston Villa 2-1 the following day to move out of the bottom three.
West Ham are now one point behind Tottenham with three games left, and Opta’s supercomputer gives them more than an 80 per cent chance of going down. The bookmakers have them at 1/4 for relegation, while Tottenham are 3/1 to drop. West Ham will try to respond against Arsenal on Sunday at 4.30pm, after a 4pm build-up on Sky Sports, while Tottenham face Leeds United on Monday at 8pm after a 6.30pm build-up.
The numbers underline how quickly the fight has turned. At the beginning of May, Spurs were viewed as having a 59 per cent chance of relegation, but their win at Villa changed that. West Ham, meanwhile, have been the sixth best team in the Premier League since January 17, when they beat Tottenham 1-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, yet they still sit in the bottom three with three games to play.
There is still no mathematical certainty in the next round of fixtures, and that is what keeps this race alive. Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace and Leeds United each have less than a one per cent chance of going down according to Opta, but the margins remain thin enough that one result can still reshape the last week of the season.
For West Ham, the west ham schedule now leaves little room for error. They have built enough form since January to suggest they can compete, but the table says they must do it immediately, and Arsenal awaits on Sunday.
