Nebius Group has drawn a line under its old identity and put a far bigger one in front of investors. The company, which trades under Nbis, secured multiyear AI compute contracts with Meta and Microsoft, took a US$2 billion investment from Nvidia and acquired Eigen AI for about US$643 million as it moves from a pure infrastructure provider toward a higher-value AI platform model.
The deals matter because they change the scale of the business in one shot. The Meta contract is valued at US$27 billion and the Microsoft agreement at US$19.4 billion, giving Nebius a backlog that few neocloud operators can match. Nvidia’s investment is intended to help expand its data center capacity, and the market has already started to reprice what that could mean for revenue and earnings by 2029.
By then, Nebius’ narrative projects $15.2 billion in revenue and $1.7 billion in earnings. Some optimistic analysts were penciling in even more, with about US$19.4 billion of revenue and US$470.6 million of earnings. The current fair value estimate is $165.85, about 6% below the stock’s current price, a sign that much of the recent excitement is already in the shares.
That is the context around a company that is trying to sell investors on a bigger ambition than rented compute. The Eigen AI purchase, which Nebius described in a separate deal to boost inference, fits the same pattern: more software, more platform depth, more control over the stack. For a business in a capital-heavy industry, the appeal is obvious. The risk is just as plain. Heavy capex and losses remain a danger if scalable GAAP profitability does not improve fast enough to justify the expansion.
The next check on that story comes with Nebius’ Q1 results on May 13, when investors will be looking for proof that the contracts, the Nvidia cash and the shift in model are translating into something sturdier than a headline-grabbing pipeline. Until then, Nbis is being valued less like a plain infrastructure play and more like a company trying to buy its way into the AI platform tier.
