Omdia has raised its 2026 semiconductor revenue forecast to 62.7 per cent, saying the market for dram and NAND memory is heading for unprecedented growth as supply stays tight. The research firm said dram revenue is expected to nearly double from 2025 levels, while the smaller NAND segment could quadruple.
The upgraded outlook lands as memory makers continue to shift more production toward high bandwidth memory, a move that eases volume but lifts prices sharply. High bandwidth memory delivers lower output than conventional parts, but it commands a far higher selling price, deepening the strain on supply across the broader dram market.
The forecast matters now because shortages are not easing. Omdia said memory supply constraints are expected to persist throughout 2026, with meaningful relief unlikely before well into 2027. Strong demand from enterprises and data centers is expected to do most of the heavy lifting next year, as companies roll out a major server refresh cycle and hyperscalers keep investment elevated.
That demand is set to make computing and data storage the clear leaders in semiconductor revenue growth. Omdia projects the segment will rise 90 per cent year-on-year in 2026 and exceed 700 billion dollars in value, a pace that would put memory at the center of the industry’s next expansion rather than on the margins of it.
The gap between sectors is widening. Smartphone shipments are projected to remain relatively flat in 2026, even as smartphone revenues rise because higher memory prices are pushing up bill of materials costs. Smartwatches and fitness and wellness wearables are also expected to post meaningful revenue growth, but they do not match the scale of demand now coming from servers, data centers and enterprise computing.
For memory buyers, the message is blunt: the shortage is no longer a temporary squeeze tied to one product cycle. It is being reinforced by a structural shift in what chipmakers choose to build, and by demand from the biggest customers in computing. Omdia’s forecast suggests the market will stay tight through next year, with the first real easing pushed into 2027.
