Ed Markey held a narrow lead over Seth Moulton in a new Emerson poll released Thursday, but the race for the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nomination remains unsettled. The survey found Markey ahead 37% to 32%, with 29% of voters still undecided.
The numbers show a contest that has tightened since November, when a UMass Amherst/WCVB poll gave Markey a 19-point edge over Moulton. Emerson found Markey with a 13-point lead among registered Democrats, while Moulton ran better with unenrolled voters, leading 38% to 32% there. Markey also led women 37% to 29%, while men were essentially split, with 38% backing Moulton and 37% Markey.
That divide matters because the undecided bloc is still large, and it is not evenly spread across the electorate. Spencer Kimball said groups that favor Markey, including women and younger voters, are also more undecided than their counterparts. Women were 10 points more undecided than men, 33% to 23%, and 39% of voters under 50 were undecided compared with 21% of voters over 50. Markey led voters under 50 by seven points, 33% to 26%, while voters over 50 were virtually split, with 40% supporting Markey and 38% supporting Moulton.
The poll also found that neither man has yet won over the broader electorate. Markey and Moulton posted the lowest favorability ratings among the five prominent Democrats measured. Markey was viewed favorably by 37% of voters and unfavorably by 35%, while Moulton was viewed favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 26%. A sizable share of voters were neutral or had never heard of Moulton, 43%, compared with 28% for Markey. By comparison, Gov. Maura Healey and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu were each viewed favorably by 45% of voters, and Elizabeth Warren was viewed favorably by 48%.
The backdrop is a Democratic race that had already been jolted by local resistance to Moulton months earlier. He suffered a caucus defeat in his hometown of Salem, where Markey won six of seven wards. The latest poll suggests that setback has not erased Moulton’s path, but it has left him with less room to build than his opponent.
The same survey points to another issue that could shape the fall political debate in Massachusetts: voters appear open to major ballot measures even as Democratic leaders have lined up against them. Sixty-two percent said they would vote yes on a measure lowering the state income tax from 5% to 4% by 2029, while 19% said no and 20% were undecided. Another 60% said they would support a measure to cap annual rent increases. Both House Speaker Ron Mariano and Healey have publicly opposed the potential income tax question. For Markey and Moulton, the immediate takeaway is plain: the race is still theirs to lose, but neither has locked down the Democrats who will decide it.
