John Swinney’s SNP won a muted victory in Scotland’s Holyrood election, but the bigger shock came after 1am when Scottish Labour and Reform UK finished tied for second place. The result left Swinney’s party ahead, yet under real pressure after its support plunged across Scotland to its lowest constituency vote share since 2007.
The SNP’s constituency vote share fell to 38.3%, even as it held the lead in the contest. Reform UK won 17 seats on the regional list allocations but made no breakthroughs in the constituency vote, while Scottish Labour also failed to turn its challenge into a clear advantage despite matching Reform for second place. The final regional results were not declared until after 1am, more than 12 hours after Friday afternoon’s counting began.
For Swinney, the numbers matter because Holyrood politics still revolves around more than just the headline winner. Scotland has no official opposition, but the party finishing second leads first minister’s questions each week, and a tie for that role has never happened before. The assumption now is that Scottish Labour and Reform will have to take turns, a peculiarity that underlines how fractured the vote has become.
The day also delivered a mixed picture beyond the top two. The Scottish Greens gained MSPs in every area of the country, and Gillian Mackay called the result seismic. Ivan McKee said the outcome showed voters were rejecting those who seek to divide communities. The SNP also lost to the Liberal Democrats in some seats and suffered a surprise defeat by Labour in Na h-Eileanan an Iar, even as it benefited from the splintering of the pro-union vote.
That split was central to the result. Craig Hoy said Reform had helped the SNP win many constituency seats by dividing the anti-independence vote, arguing that “John Swinney really should’ve been up for a pasting tonight, and Reform let him off the hook.” Reform had also previously attacked Anas Sarwar’s loyalty to Scotland in a racist ad, and Swinney has described the party as an acute threat to devolution. The SNP’s losses came against a background of local fury over Scottish government failures to deal with an ongoing ferries crisis, yet the final balance of power still left the first minister in place and the opposition benches more confused than unified.
The result is a warning to every party that the old assumptions no longer hold. Labour is back in contention, Reform has turned a national brand into a parliamentary foothold, and the SNP remains dominant without looking secure. For Swinney, the immediate challenge is less about celebrating a win than governing through an election that exposed how narrow his path has become.
