The New York Mets arrived in Phoenix on May 7 for a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a matchup that put two struggling teams in the same park with different kinds of pressure on both dugouts. New York came in at 14-23, still tied for the worst record in baseball, while Arizona was 17-19 and trying to keep a season that had already started to wobble from slipping further.
The pitching setup made the series look uneven on paper. The Mets were lined up to throw two of their best arms and an unknown, while Arizona was set to counter with its two weakest starters and its best one. That mattered because the Mets had won their last two series against bad teams, only to remain at the bottom of the standings, and the Diamondbacks had dropped 11 of their last 17 games after winning just one of their previous six series.
For New York, the trip carried the feel of a test that could not be dodged by pointing to the schedule. The Mets were getting a chance to face a staff that had been vulnerable outside its top arm, and they needed results. They also headed toward a stretch that included the Yankees next week and later matchups against the Tigers, Nationals and Marlins, making every series in the near term part of a larger climb out of the hole.
Arizona’s own form has been uneven enough to make the series hard to read. Corbin Carroll was off to a hot start and Ildemaro Vargas was, too, while Ketel Marte was off to a slow one. The Diamondbacks had shown better baseball earlier in April before the recent skid, and that mix of early offense and late trouble has left them trying to sort out how much of their record reflects who they are and how much reflects the last few weeks.
The most intriguing arm in the series is Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, who has thrown 39.1 innings this season with 51 strikeouts, 11 walks, two home runs allowed, a 2.50 ERA, a 2.12 FIP and a 75 ERA-. He has given New York a chance almost every time out, allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of his seven starts, but the Mets have won only one of those seven games. Two of his losses came in extra-innings games, a reminder that strong individual outings have not always been enough to change the result.
That stands in sharp contrast to Arizona starter Jordan Nelson, whose season has been far rougher. He has thrown 31.1 innings with 28 strikeouts, 15 walks and six home runs allowed, but his 6.61 ERA, 5.50 FIP and 159 ERA- tell the larger story. On April 19, Nelson lasted one-third of an inning against the Blue Jays and gave up eight earned runs on eight hits. His next start lasted longer but still produced six earned runs, before he settled down against the Cubs last week.
The series now becomes less about labels than about whether either club can cash in on the opening in front of it. The Mets have not played like a last-place team over every stretch, but they still need to prove they can take care of business against opponents they are expected to beat. Arizona, with a better record and a worse recent run, needs to show that the skid has not become something more lasting. For both sides, the next few days in Phoenix say a lot about what kind of club each one is right now.
