The Braves vs Dodgers series opens Thursday night in Los Angeles with Atlanta sending Chris Sale to the mound against Emmet Sheehan in game one of a three-game set. After a day of rest, the Braves are leaning on the top half of their rotation while the Dodgers counter with the bottom half of theirs.
Sale, who has a 2.14 ERA this season, gives Atlanta its best chance to control the series opener. The left-hander gave up six runs in a start on April 6, but every other outing has looked more like the version the Braves expected when they gave him the ball. He has pitched at least six innings in every start except that April 6 outing, and he has not surrendered more than one earned run in any other game. Over his last three starts, Sale has averaged 6.2 innings, 3.0 hits, 0.7 earned runs, 2.0 walks and 9.0 strikeouts.
Sheehan, meanwhile, comes in with a 5.23 ERA and a 4.31 expected ERA, though the numbers around his profile are less straightforward than the surface line. He ranks in the top 25.0 percent of the league in strikeout and walk rates, but sits in the bottom 36.0 percent in barrel percentage and the bottom 42.0 percent in hard-hit rate. That matters against an Atlanta lineup that is third in MLB in barrels per plate appearance, eighth in hard-hit percentage, first in batted balls and second in balls hit 95.0 MPH or harder.
The matchup also carries a built-in scouting edge. Sale has faced Teoscar Hernández 18 times, more than any other Dodgers hitter, while no other Los Angeles batter has seen him in more than nine at-bats. Freddie Freeman has the deepest history among the rest of the lineup with nine at-bats against Sale, and he has a.333 average and a 1.222 OPS with one home run. Hernández has an.818 OPS against the left-hander, but no other Dodgers hitter is above.708, and Shohei Ohtani does not clear that mark either.
The larger backdrop is what gives the series its edge. The Braves have kept winning games they were supposed to win, but this trip marks the first time in quite a while they are being described as underdogs. Both clubs have navigated rotation injuries and still stayed afloat, and Atlanta will try to use Sale as the first and best chance to tilt a demanding road series. Sheehan last faced the Braves in 2023, and Tuesday’s opener should quickly show whether the matchup data or the lineup power carries the night.
