The Chicago Cubs came within one out of baseball’s first no-hitter of the 2026 season on April 5, only to watch Michael Conforto let a fly ball fall in the sixth inning and give the Cleveland Guardians their lone hit in game one of a Sunday doubleheader.
The Cubs still won 1-0, but the play ended a bid that would have opened the season with one of its rarest feats. Conforto’s drop came on a ball with a 99% catch probability, a brutal turn that left Chicago denying Cleveland a hit but not the victory.
The number makes the frustration plain. A 99% catch probability is the kind of play outfielders make almost every time, and this one was the Guardians’ only hit of the game. The WARmonger summed up the moment bluntly, noting that the catch probability started at 99% and calling it a tough way to lose a no-no.
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There is still no clean answer for why the ball was lost. Wind or the sky may have played a part, but there is no way to know for certain whether the rest of the game would have unfolded the same way if Conforto had made the catch. What is clear is that the Cubs were denied a no-hitter and still walked away with the win.
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The result also fit into a larger drought across the majors. The absence of a no-hitter remained the longest since the 2004-2006 stretch, making every near miss feel heavier than a single game in April usually would. Chicago’s missed chance on April 5 landed in that context, but the club still finished the day with the score that mattered most.
