Aaron Nola returned in 2026 after an offseason to rest and recover, but his fastball problems have followed him back to the mound. The Phillies right-hander entered the season after an injury-plagued, injury-shortened 2025, and the early numbers have not pointed to a clean reset.
Nola’s fastballs are sitting in the 2nd percentile by run value, and that is showing up in the results on his four-seamer. In 2024, the pitch held hitters to a.167 batting average and a.316 slugging percentage. In 2026, that line has ballooned to a.333 average and.667 slugging percentage, with opponents producing a 58.8% hard-hit rate against it. The pitch has also lost a little velocity, averaging 91.7 mph this year after 92.5 mph in 2024.
The rest of the profile has not offered much relief. Nola’s cutter is down to 86.1 mph from 87.5 mph and his sinker has dipped to 90.8 mph from 91.5 mph. His cutter has also shown just 0.1 inches of horizontal movement in the tracking data, a small margin that helps explain why hitters have not had much trouble squaring up his fastball mix.
That picture sits beside the broader run-prevention numbers that made his 2025 struggles feel worse than they looked. Nola’s xERA was 4.67 and his observed ERA was 5.06, while his FIP was 4.03 against an observed FIP of 3.44. He also carried a.347 BABIP, a sign that some of the damage could still be tied to poor fortune as much as execution.
The tension for the Phillies is plain: the offseason was supposed to restore Aaron Nola to form, but the first look at 2026 shows a pitcher whose arsenal is still getting hit hard. If the fastball does not firm up, the rest of the rebound may have to come from elsewhere in the mix — and that is a harder road for a starter who has already lost a season to injury.
