Fiorentina will host Sassuolo at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence, Italy, on Saturday, April 25, 2026, in a meeting shaped as much by the numbers as by the matchup itself. Fiorentina are listed at +126, while Sassuolo are favored at -152, with the total set at 3.
The expected goalkeepers add another layer to fiorentina vs sassuolo. David de Gea is projected to start for Fiorentina, with Stefano Turati in line for Sassuolo, as both sides arrive with defenses that have leaked nearly the same number of goals. Fiorentina have scored 37 and conceded 44, while Sassuolo have scored 41 and allowed 44.
The records make the gap clearer. Fiorentina are 8-11-13 with 35 points, while Sassuolo are 13-6-14 with 45 points. Fiorentina also have seven clean sheets to Sassuolo’s six, but the discipline figures are close too, with 72 yellow cards and two red cards for Fiorentina against 73 yellows and four reds for Sassuolo.
That is what makes this fixture more than a simple home date for Fiorentina. Sassuolo carry the better points total and the stronger price, even though the clubs have allowed the same 44 goals. Fiorentina’s lower total and steadier defensive profile have not been enough to erase the market’s preference for Sassuolo, and that split is the most telling part of the matchup.
There is also the wider scoring history of the players who may shape the afternoon. Rolando Mandragora has 36 goals in 24,842 minutes in his professional career, while Andrea Pinamonti has 62 goals in 17,846 professional minutes. If the game opens up as the total suggests, the contest may turn on which side makes the cleaner finish inside the box and which goalkeeper handles the pressure better in Florence.
The most important question is whether Fiorentina can turn a home field edge into a result against a side with the better record and the lower price. The numbers point to a match that should stay competitive, and the opening whistle in Florence will show whether that market read holds.
