Alexander Bublik faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in the ATP Masters 1000 Madrid second round on 25.04.2026 at 21:30 CEST, with the Kazakh listed as the slight favourite to win. The matchup lands at a moment when both men have been losing more often than they have been winning.
Bublik has dropped three of his last five matches, including a straight-sets loss to Molcan in his opening match in Munich last week. Tsitsipas has also lost three of his last five, and his own recent run has been messy enough to leave him in terrible form and ranked outside the top 70. He needed almost three hours and three tight sets to get past Kypson in Madrid this week, but that effort came after an opening-round loss to Marozsan in Munich last week.
The numbers still make this a difficult call, but they lean toward Bublik. He was beaten by Mensik in the fourth round in Madrid last season in straight sets, yet the fast clay courts in Madrid are the kind of surface he is said to enjoy. That is why Bublik winning is being framed as a value bet, even with both players arriving short of their best.
The tension in this one is obvious: Tsitsipas has the higher profile, but Bublik has the betting edge and the better fit for the conditions. If the Kazakh can carry his comfort on faster clay into the second round, the market may prove to have read the matchup correctly.
