Andrey Rublev is favored to beat Vit Kopriva when the two meet in the round of 64 at the ATP Madrid event on Friday, with the match set for 8:30 AM ET.
Dimers’ advanced tennis model gives Rublev a 74% chance to win and a 70% chance to take the first set, while also pricing him at a 53% chance to cover the -3.5 games spread. The over/under is set at 21.5 games and the model sees that total as a 50-50 proposition, though its top play for the match is over 21.5 games.
The preview is part of the betting build-up around the ATP Madrid Open, where Dimers says it used machine learning and statistical analysis to simulate the outcome. Those numbers were current at the time of publication and can change before first serve.
Rublev enters as the clear statistical pick, but the market view is not absolute. A 74% win probability leaves enough room for a competitive match, and the model’s split on the total points to the same possibility. That is the friction bettors watch most closely: a favorite can be backed to win while still making the total harder to read.
The Madrid meeting also lands on a busy tennis slate, with Jiri Lehecka meeting Alexander Bublik in Monte Carlo round of 16 action. For Rublev and Kopriva, the next step is simple: the first point arrives Friday morning in Madrid, and the numbers say Rublev should be the one controlling it.
