Stephen Curry is back, and the Golden State Warriors are back in business for the kind of game they have to win. Golden State was set to host the Sacramento Kings at Chase Center on Tuesday, April 7, looking to end a three-game skid against Sacramento and ride the momentum from Curry’s return on Sunday.
Curry missed two months, then stepped onto the floor against the Rockets and scored 29 points. That is why the number matters here. He had scored 27 or more points in 23 of his first 40 games this season and in 12 of 22 home games, and he already had five 3-pointers against Houston after making six in his first matchup with the Kings. For a Warriors team that has been much better with him than without him, his presence changes the whole board.
The split is stark. Golden State carried a 119.4 offensive rating with Curry and a 110.6 rating without him. The team averaged 120.2 points per game with him and 109.2 without him, while the pace ticked up to 100.1 with Curry compared with 97.4 without. The shooting followed the same pattern: 47.6% from the field and 37.4% from 3-point range with Curry, versus 44.6% and 33.5% without him. In plain terms, the Warriors were an entirely different team with Stephen Curry in the lineup.
That is also where the betting case has lived. The Kings and Warriors had each hit the Over in seven of their last 10 games, and the Over had landed in six straight head-to-head matchups. Sacramento had gone Over in three of its last five road games, while Golden State had done it in four of its last five at home. The Warriors had also hit the team total Over in 22 of their last 30 home games, a run that lines up with the way they score when Curry is available. Draymond Green adds another layer, averaging 5.8 assists per game at home this season and eight assists per game across his last five outings, with the assist over cashing in four of those five.
There are still a few friction points. The Kings may be missing several key players, though the source does not identify them, and Golden State has to prove the return of one star is enough to stop a slide that has already stretched across three meetings with Sacramento. Brandin Podziemski has made multiple 3-pointers in seven straight games, and De’Anthony Melton has given the Warriors another perimeter option, including three 3s against Sacramento earlier in the season. If Golden State is going to keep the pace high and the offense clean, it likely needs all of that working at once.
For Tuesday night, the cleanest read is that Curry’s return gives the Warriors the edge on the court and tilts the total toward another high-scoring finish. The last question is not whether he can score; it is whether Sacramento can slow a Golden State team that looks far more dangerous when Curry is in uniform and the game starts to open up.
