The Cincinnati Reds opened a three-game series at the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday night at the renovated Trop, with first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET. Rhett Lowder was scheduled to start the opener as Cincinnati looked to build on a weekend sweep of the Minnesota Twins.
The Reds arrived in Tampa at 14-8 and in first place in their division after scoring 78 runs through their first 22 games. The Rays were 12-9 and in second place after dropping two of three to Pittsburgh, even though they had scored 103 runs through 21 games.
That contrast has defined both clubs through the first month. Cincinnati’s success has come despite one of the quietest offenses in the league, with the club leaning on strong bullpen work and better defense to stay on top. Tampa Bay has produced more at the plate, but the run total has not translated cleanly into wins, and the Rays entered the series with a 4-1 record in one-run games.
The Rays’ numbers underline the split. Their offense sat 11th overall in team wOBA and 10th in team wRC+, while the pitching indicators were less flattering, including an 18.6% strikeout rate, the second lowest mark, and a 4.90 expected ERA, fifth worst. Their 1.28 homers per game were the fifth highest figure, but the overall 5.81 xERA was the single worst in the field.
Cincinnati’s side of the ledger has been almost the mirror image. The Reds were 13th in defense, second worst by one measure cited in the background data, and their offense had not generated much volume, yet they still carried 14 wins into the opener. Chase Burns was slated to pitch Tuesday and Brandon Williamson on Wednesday, giving the Reds a full rotation plan for the series after Lowder’s start Monday.
The matchup also arrived with both teams trying to answer the same basic question in different ways: whether the version of themselves that showed up over the weekend is the real one. Cincinnati swept Minnesota to take control of its division. Tampa Bay lost ground by dropping two of three to Pittsburgh. By the end of the week, one of them will have a cleaner answer.
