ASML is expected to report first-quarter earnings on Wednesday after a year in which its shares have risen more than 40%, a rally driven by demand for the machines that make the world's most advanced chips.
The Dutch company supplies lithography tools to chipmakers including Taiwan's TSMC and is the sole maker of extreme ultraviolet systems, the equipment needed to produce the most advanced AI chips. ASML has told investors to expect first-quarter sales of 8.2 billion to 8.9 billion euros, up from 7.7 billion euros a year earlier, while analysts polled by LSEG are looking for 8.5 billion euros.
That sets up a quarter that should land near the top of the range. Several analysts say customers have been rushing to install machines already ordered or to upgrade existing lines, and Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero said SK Hynix bought $8 billion in ASML tools while Samsung placed around $4-5 billion in orders. He said, "It's no secret that the quarter will be strong."
The numbers matter because ASML is Europe’s most valuable listed company and one of the clearest ways to bet on the AI buildout. It also makes deep ultraviolet tools, a business where it faces competition from Japan's Nikon and China's SMEE, but the higher-margin extreme ultraviolet systems remain the company’s crown jewel. ASML reported 32.7 billion euros in revenue in 2024 and is forecasting 34 billion to 39 billion euros this year, above the 37.6 billion euros analysts expect.
ASML stopped reporting new bookings after last quarter, saying the figures caused unneeded volatility in its share price on earnings days. That removed one of the clearest forward-looking signs from the quarter, even as investors still have to judge how much demand is real and how much is being pulled forward.
The other drag is China. The country generated around one-third of ASML group sales in 2025, but that share is expected to fall to about 20% this year under existing export limits. Analysts say proposed U.S. Congress curbs, if enforced in their strictest form, could wipe out less than half of ASML's residual China sales. ASML's long-term growth assumptions of 6% to 13% annual sales through 2030 were based on the global chip market reaching $1 trillion in annual sales only at the end of that period, but most now expect the industry to pass that level this year.
Richard Carlyle said the company is "investing in the picks and shovels of the AI revolution," and that remains the trade. The question after Wednesday is not whether ASML is growing, but how long it can keep growing this fast while China shrinks and customers keep waiting more than a year for machines that still cannot be built overnight.
