The 2026 NBA postseason was set to begin this week, and ’s latest bracket projection already sketches out the first-round path in both conferences. Using its Basketball Power Index, projected four teams to emerge from the play-in tournament: the Philadelphia 76ers as the East 7 seed, the Charlotte Hornets as the East 8 seed, the Phoenix Suns as the West 7 seed and the Portland Trail Blazers as the West 8 seed.
That forecast would send Detroit against Charlotte in the East, Boston against Philadelphia, New York against Atlanta and Cleveland against Toronto. The matchups carry different levels of uncertainty. Charlotte ranked second in the league in net rating since Jan. 1, and Detroit ranked third, yet the Pistons went 3-0 against the Hornets in the regular season and outscored them 188-96 in the paint across those three games.
Boston’s path would also come with a wrinkle. The Celtics and 76ers split their season series 2-2, but Jayson Tatum did not play in any of those meetings, and Joel Embiid could be sidelined after an emergency appendectomy. That leaves the 2-7 series as one of the more difficult projections to pin down before the bracket is finalized.
The Eastern Conference other pairings would also arrive with some recent evidence attached. New York beat Atlanta 108-105 in a playoff preview game last week, while Cleveland enters its meeting with Toronto with more talent on paper despite the Raptors sweeping the season series 3-0. Toronto was one of only two Eastern Conference teams swept by Boston in the regular season, a reminder that the postseason bracket can look tidy on paper and still hide a few uncomfortable matchups underneath.
There is also the memory of February, when Detroit and Charlotte were involved in a brawl that led to suspensions for Moussa Diabate, Miles Bridges, Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart. That history does not change ’s projection, but it gives the 1-8 matchup a sharper edge than the seed numbers alone would suggest. Once the play-in results are decided, the bracket will stop being a forecast and become the road each team actually has to walk.
