Garion Thorne’s top home run prop picks for Monday’s MLB slate put Willson Contreras, Nick Kurtz and Oneil Cruz in the spotlight, with each batter carrying a different edge into April 13, 2026.
Contreras was the clearest fit. Thorne pointed to the Cardinals catcher’s.434 expected wOBA, a mark that sat in the 97th percentile, and his 16.2% barrel rate, which ranked in the 90th percentile, through 67 plate appearances. Bailey Ober, the pitcher on the other side, had already given up 30 home runs in 2025 and 27 the year before, and right-handed hitters had combined to slash.310/.355/.517 against him across three starts. Thorne’s confidence in the play came through in blunt terms, saying he could not overstate how nice it was for Contreras, especially with odds longer than 5/1.
The logic for Cruz ran through raw power. He had 99th percentile bat speed of 78.4, 99th percentile average exit velocity of 96.3 and a 96th percentile barrel rate of 20.5%, the kind of underlying profile that can turn any favorable matchup into a home run wager. Against a Nationals bullpen that had surrendered a league-high 2.26 opponent home runs per nine and carried a 6.22 xERA, Cruz looked like the type of hitter Thorne wanted on a short list. The matchup sat in contrast to Cade Cavalli, who had not allowed a home run in 2026, but the bullpen numbers were the louder part of the case.
Kurtz was the freshest name in the group, and not because of a long track record. He hit his first home run of 2026 on Sunday, driving a third-inning shot off Freddy Peralta, and entered Monday batting.204 through 63 plate appearances. Even with that slow start, the power indicators stayed loud: a 98th percentile bat speed of 76.6 and a 99th percentile average exit velocity of 97.1. Thorne said the home run drought was over and added that he would not be shocked if Kurtz heated up quickly now that the seal had been broken.
The card worked because each pick rested on a different kind of evidence. Contreras brought quality contact and a pitcher with a long list of home run problems. Cruz brought elite swing speed and a bullpen that had been punished all season. Kurtz brought the simplest case of all: a young hitter who had finally opened his 2026 account and may not be done. For bettors trying to sort Monday’s slate, Thorne’s list framed the power plays around form, matchup and the kind of recent swing that can change the shape of a week.
