Tyler Herro will play against Atlanta when the Miami Heat close out the regular season tomorrow night at home, giving Miami another chance to push its way out of 10th place in the East. The Heat are 42-39 and can still finish ninth if they beat the Hawks and the New York Knicks beat the Charlotte Hornets.
That would matter because a ninth-place finish would keep Miami home for the first Play-In game, against Charlotte on either Tuesday or Wednesday, instead of sending the Heat on the road. It would also give the Heat a cleaner route into the postseason after a stretch that has left little margin for error.
Herro has been central to whatever stability Miami has found this season, and he is joined by Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell, both of whom will also play against Atlanta. Norman Powell is questionable with a groin injury, Simone Fonteccio is considered probable because of a left ankle injury, and Nikola Jovic will miss his fourth straight game with an ankle injury. Dru Smith is out for a third consecutive contest because of a right toe sprain.
The availability matters because Miami has not had its full group together at any point this season. There has not been a time when all 18 players, including the two-way players, were available, and the Heat have spent much of the year piecing together lineups around lingering injuries and Terry Rozier’s suspension. Five players sat out Wednesday’s 140-117 win over the Washington Wizards because of those injury issues.
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Even with those absences, Miami has leaned heavily on Herro, Wiggins and Powell, who have been three of the team’s top four scorers for a total of 87 games this season. When Herro, Wiggins, Powell, Bam Adebayo and Mitchell have started together, the Heat are 4-4 and have outscored opponents by 5.2 points per 100 possessions. But that group has only played together in eight games, a thin sample for a team that has needed continuity for months.
The bigger picture is not flattering. Miami has lost 10 of its last 14 games and is 21-31 against teams with a winning record. The Heat are also trying to extend a playoff streak to seven straight seasons in the 2025-26 season, which would keep a run alive that has already taken them deep into the bracket in uneven fashion.
That history cuts both ways. Miami is 4-2 in Play-In games over the last three seasons and secured the eighth playoff spot each time, including the 2023 run that carried the team to the NBA Finals. But the Heat are also 1-8 in their last two playoff series and were swept by Cleveland last season, a reminder that reaching the bracket has not solved the larger problem of surviving it.
If the Heat handle Atlanta and get the help they need from New York, they will stay in Miami for the next round and keep control of the path they have spent the season trying to build. If they do not, the margin for the postseason shrinks again, and the first step starts on the road.
