The Islanders finally stopped the slide on Thursday, beating the Maple Leafs 5-3 at UBS Arena, and now they get a Saturday afternoon test that could say plenty about how far their playoff chase can go. Ottawa comes in with a three-point lead and a far more secure grip on the race, while New York has only one more home stand to lean on.
The Islanders replaced Patrick Roy with Peter DeBoer behind the bench with only four games left to play, then ended a four-game drought with a result that at least keeps their season from slipping away quietly. They host the Senators next, with the game priced as even-money for New York and set at a 5.5-goal total, the Over sitting at -130.
There is a hard number behind the urgency. Ottawa is -3500 to make the playoffs at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Islanders are +176, a gap that reflects how differently the two teams have traveled to this point. The Senators broke an eight-year playoff slump last year and have backed it up with a season that has them ranked inside Money Puck’s top five in both expected goal rate and shot attempt differential at 5-on-5.
That defensive profile is part of what makes Ottawa look dangerous if the goaltending holds. The Senators lead hockey with the lowest expected goal rate against per 60 minutes, but Linus Ullmark is still the name that hangs over the matchup because he needs to pull it together. Ottawa has also gotten strong two-way play from its top two lines: Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Cozens and Ridly Greig have combined to rank as the NHL’s top overall line in expected goals rate, while the third line of Shane Pinto, Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins sits second.
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The Senators also got Thomas Chabot back on Thursday after he recovered from a broken arm, another sign that their roster is getting healthier at the right time. That matters for a team that has already taken tangible steps forward and could be a first-round problem if its goaltending sharpens.
For the Islanders, the brightest season-long development remains on the blue line. Matthew Schaefer tied Brian Leetch’s record for most points by a rookie defenseman on Thursday, leads all rookies in ice time and has generated the second-most shots and points on the Islanders. His 7.3 goals above expected underscore how much he has driven play for a team that still has to win out against three playoff contenders to stay in the mix.
New York will also play its next three games at home, which gives DeBoer a short runway to see whether Thursday was a reset or just a pause. Ottawa has the better record of recent results, the stronger underlying numbers and the cleaner playoff path. The Islanders have the less certain one, and that makes Saturday feel less like a mid-April date than a checkpoint.
