SEATTLE — The Mariners came home Monday night to open a four-game series against the Astros, carrying a five-game losing streak and a shrinking cushion in the American League race. What had looked like a strong April start has already begun to slip, and this series arrives with the division picture tightening.
Seattle’s playoff odds have fallen from 80.9% on Opening Day to 66.5%, though the Mariners still enter as the favorite to win the division and hold the second-best playoff odds in the American League. That is the weight of this week: a team that was expected to be in the thick of things is already having to answer for early losses that can echo later in the season.
The Astros arrive with a different kind of pressure. They won five of their first seven games, then stumbled on a road trip that took them through Sacramento against the A’s and on to Colorado, where they managed only two runs over their final two games. Even so, their lineup has been one of the most productive in the sport, leading baseball in runs and carrying a 142 wRC+ as a team.
Read Also: Astros - Rockies: Houston seeks to avoid sweep after rocky road trip
That offense has been driven by stars and by depth. Yordan Alvarez has four home runs and a 227 wRC+, Jose Altuve has posted a 204 wRC+, and Christian Walker has three home runs with a 199 wRC+. Cam Smith has also taken an encouraging early-season step forward, giving Houston another bat to lean on while the division settles into the long middle of the year.
The concern for Houston is the pitching staff around that lineup. Hunter Brown went on the injured list last week with a shoulder injury, Cristian Javier left his start Wednesday after one inning, and Josh Hader’s spring injury has already destabilized the relief corps. The result has been a bullpen with a 7.09 ERA, worst in baseball, a number that can undo even a strong offensive night. Houston also added Tatsuya Imai on a three-year deal this offseason, and his mix of a fastball, slider, splitter, changeup and curveball gives the organization another arm to develop for later.
That is what makes this series more than an early-season date on the schedule. The Mariners need to halt a slide before it turns into a deeper April hole, while the Astros are trying to keep pace despite a pitching staff already asking a lot of its offense. Seattle has the chance to change the tone of its season at home. Houston has the chance to prove that its ugly pitching numbers are not enough to slow down a contender built to score.
