Iran is headed into peace talks with the United States this weekend in Islamabad while Israeli strikes on Lebanon threaten to derail the process. The negotiations come after five weeks of war and a two-week cease-fire that has not restored normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
In Tehran on Thursday, large pro-government crowds gathered in the heart of the city to mark the 40th day since the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Some mourners beat their chests, crying and chanting against surrender or compromise, as Mojtaba Khamenei said in a statement published by Iranian state media: “We have granted you a clear victory.”
Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref struck the same note after the cease-fire was announced, posting on X: “The era of Iran has begun.” The message matters because Iranian officials are now presenting the war and the cease-fire as proof of strength, not exhaustion, just as talks with Washington are set to open.
The fight over the Strait of Hormuz gives the negotiations immediate weight. The waterway carries about 20% of the world’s oil, and traffic through it has remained largely at a standstill despite the cease-fire. Burcu Ozcelik said Iran has effectively asserted authority over the strait, even as President Donald Trump warned that Iran would be annihilated if it did not agree to a deal to reopen it.
Trump also suggested that a 10-point proposal put forward by Tehran could be a workable basis for a broader peace deal. U.S. officials said he was not referring to the same 10-point plan outlined by Iranian officials and state media, which they said called for Iran’s continued control over transit through the strait, the complete withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from their bases across the region and, according to multiple Iranian media outlets, acceptance of enrichment for Iran’s nuclear program.
That gap is the real friction in the talks. One side is describing a package of concessions as a path to peace; the other is describing it as proof that Washington should leave. Yahya, who described himself as skeptical of the process, said, “I’m not very optimistic, because we know the other side.” He called the talks “more of a deception, a trap,” and added: “What we want, they definitely won’t give us. And what they want, we definitely won’t accept.”
The weekend meeting in Islamabad will test whether the cease-fire can survive the politics now surrounding it. Iranian leaders are celebrating, the United States is warning, and the talks are beginning with both sides already arguing over what was actually offered.
