Neil Parker is backing the Winnipeg Jets to beat the St. Louis Blues in a low-scoring game Thursday night at Enterprise Center. The matchup between Central Division rivals was set for April 9, with both teams showing the kind of defensive form that has kept scores tight.
Winnipeg entered the game with an active 11-5-2 record in its postseason push and was allowing 2.67 goals per game over that stretch. The Jets also ranked with the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, a sign their results were being driven as much by structure as by finishing. St. Louis had been even stingier in that span, going 11-3-3 while giving up a league-low 1.88 goals per game and posting the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5.
Parker said he was not expecting much to change with both teams still not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, and he framed his Jets vs. Blues view around a game that should stay tight. That lines up with the recent betting trends: Winnipeg had hit the Under in 16 of its last 25 games, while St. Louis had gone Under in 15 of its last 20.
There is still a different kind of pressure on the two benches. Winnipeg remained in the playoff hunt, while St. Louis was all but mathematically eliminated, which makes the Blues' defensive run more notable than its place in the standings. For Winnipeg, the focus is on keeping pace, and Mark Scheifele has been part of that push by recording two or more shots in six of his past eight games, with 20 total shots on 39 attempts while averaging 22:13 per night.
The most likely shape of the night is a game decided by one mistake, one power play or one hot stretch in front of goal. The numbers point the same way Parker did: when these teams meet at Enterprise Center, offense may have to work for every inch.
