The Consumer Price Index is expected to show that March prices rose at a 3.3% annual pace, a sharp turn after inflation cooled early in the year and just days after the U.S. announcement of a truce with Iran sent oil prices lower. The report, due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, would mark the hottest reading since May 2024 and nearly a 1 percentage-point jump from February.
The 3.3% forecast is the average of six separate estimates reviewed by CBS News. It comes as energy markets absorb the shock of the Iran war, which economists say is already feeding into gasoline, airline fares and the cost of moving food from farms and ports to store shelves. Oxford Economics said the conflict's effect on energy prices would push headline CPI inflation well above 3% in March and above 4% by April, while Pantheon Economics said the U.S. saw the largest one-month jump in fuel costs since at least 1957.
The move higher matters because inflation had been easing before the war hit fuel markets. In the first two months of 2026, prices rose at a 2.4% annual rate, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target but far below the 40-year high of 9.1% reached in June 2022. Now the question is not whether the war lifted energy prices, but how far the pressure spreads. Experts say the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely to quickly unwind global shortages, and the effects are likely to last for months.
Read Also: S&p edges higher as Iran deadline looms, oil swings on war fears
Mark Zandi said Americans will be paying the price through much of the year, and that grocery prices will probably be a bit higher. He also expects a bump in airline tickets as higher fuel costs work through transportation and production. That lines up with the broader concern that higher prices can squeeze household budgets and eventually slow discretionary spending, a problem because consumer spending accounts for about 70 cents of every $1 of GDP.
There is also a gap between the relief in oil markets and the costs already locked in for consumers. After the U.S. announced the truce with Iran on Tuesday, the U.S. oil benchmark tumbled almost 15% to $96.41 a barrel, but it remained 43% higher than just before the war. Before that decline, consumers had already paid an estimated $8.4 billion in extra fuel costs in the month after the conflict began. The Trump administration said gas prices will plummet back to the multi-year lows American drivers enjoyed before the short-term disruptions, but economists see a slower unwind. For now, the next inflation reading will show whether the spike is a brief shock or the start of a longer squeeze on American budgets.
