The Spurs took a 2-1 lead over the Timberwolves entering Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal series Sunday night, with a chance to put Minnesota in a near-desperate spot. Game 4 was set for 7:30 ET on NBC at Target Center in Minneapolis.
Victor Wembanyama changed the series in Game 3. He scored a playoff career-high 39 points and added 15 rebounds and five blocks, the kind of line that can tilt a postseason series even when the other side knows exactly where the ball is going.
That was the weight behind this matchup. If San Antonio wins Game 4, it would carry a commanding lead that has historically advanced about 95% of the time. If Minnesota wins, the series flips to 2-2 and the Timberwolves guarantee themselves another home game Tuesday, if necessary.
The numbers help explain why the Spurs have been in control. Through the first three games, Minnesota scored just 100.0 points per 100 possessions, well below the 115.6 points per 100 possessions it produced in the regular season and the 112.8 it managed in the first round against the Nuggets.
That drop is especially striking because the Timberwolves had made two straight trips to the West Finals before this series. They looked like a team with postseason muscle and a reliable perimeter threat, but Donte DiVincenzo is out for the foreseeable future after rupturing his right Achilles tendon in the Denver series. He had led Minnesota with 244 3-pointers in the regular season and was launching eight attempts per game, the sort of spacing that gives Anthony Edwards and the rest of the offense room to breathe.
Without him, the Spurs have been able to smother Edwards and his teammates. Minnesota has not been moving the scoreboard in the way it did during the regular season, and that is the friction point in the series: the Timberwolves have the pedigree of a contender, but they have not yet matched the pace or efficiency needed to push San Antonio back.
For the Spurs, Sunday was about turning one strong road performance into control of the series. For Minnesota, it was about finding enough offense to stop the slide before Game 5 on Tuesday becomes a must-win on the wrong side of the bracket.
