The Vancouver Whitecaps and San Jose Earthquakes meet Saturday night in California for the second time this year, with both clubs arriving as two of the best teams to start the MLS season. Vancouver has an expected goal difference of +20.9, San Jose is at +14.1, and Chicago trails them both at +7.9.
That gap matters because only four MLS clubs are currently above +5 in expected goal difference, a sign that both teams have been creating and limiting chances at a level few others can match. San Jose has scored seven goals, Preston Judd has added two assists for nine goal contributions, and Niko Tsakiris has four assists, while Timo Werner has produced seven goal contributions in fewer than 500 minutes.
San Jose also has gotten strong work in goal from Daniel, who has been one of the more underrated performers in MLS, and the back line includes 22-year-old center back Reid Roberts. The Earthquakes will need that balance again on Saturday because Tsakiris and Werner are sidelined through injury.
The March meeting at BC Place ended in a 1-0 San Jose win, even though Vancouver won the expected goals battle 1.21 to 0.65. Beau Leroux scored the only goal with a spectacular strike, a result that showed how thin the margins can be when these teams play.
Bruce Arena's San Jose side has been notable for a sharper defense without losing its attack, and this matchup could matter later in the Supporters' Shield race. Vancouver may have a wider schedule crunch ahead, with road matches in Dallas on Wednesday and Houston next Saturday, and Thomas Müller is expected to miss a second straight match.
That leaves the rematch in California as more than a replay of March. Vancouver has the numbers to suggest it should control more of the game, but San Jose already proved once that a single moment can still decide it. The writer predicted a 2-1 Vancouver win.
