Major League Soccer returned Saturday, April 11, and Dimers published predictions for a slate of 13 matches, using data-driven algorithms that simulate every contest thousands of times. One of the clearest reads came in the New England-D.C. United matchup at Gillette Stadium, where the model gave New England a 59% chance to win at 7:30 PM ET.
That projection mattered because D.C. United had scored just 4 goals through 6 matches and both clubs were sitting 8th and 9th in the standings. Dimers said New England had more than 3 times the chance to win as D.C. United, with a draw carrying less than a 25% probability and a 2-0 New England victory landing at 11%.
The model's edge came from a broad set of inputs, including expected-goals metrics, rosters, recent form and player-level data. For a single Saturday slate, that meant a quick way to separate favorites from coin flips before the first kickoff, with the New England call standing out as one of the cleaner predictions on the board.
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FC Dallas then offered a different kind of test on Saturday night against St. Louis City, and the numbers still leaned home. Dimers gave Dallas a 53.6% chance to win, with a 22.4% draw probability and a 24.0% chance of a St. Louis upset. The model also put nearly a 54% win probability on Dallas overall, while assigning a 60% chance to the over and a 10% probability to a 2-1 correct score.
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That forecast lined up with the recent record: Dallas entered on a 9-match home win streak, the third-longest active streak in MLS, and had shut out St. Louis in three home matches in their history. Dallas had also scored 3 or more goals in 4 of its 6 contests so far, while St. Louis had only one victory through six matches and was scoring less than one goal per match. Petar Musa, MLS's top scorer, gave the matchup another reason to track the home side closely. The betting model did not promise an easy night, but it did suggest the gap between the clubs was real and measurable before kickoff.