Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich 5-4 on Tuesday in a Champions League semifinal first leg that had nine goals, 22 shots and seven different scorers, leaving the tie hanging over Wednesday’s return in Munich. Bayern will host PSG on Wednesday, 5/6/26 at 3 p.m. ET, and the winner will move on to the May 30 final in Budapest with Arsenal waiting on the other side of the bracket.
The numbers from the first leg explain why this one now feels impossible to settle in advance. PSG scored twice through Ousmane Dembélé and twice through Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, with João Neves adding one, while Bayern got goals from Harry Kane, Luis Díaz, Michael Olise and Dayot Upamecano. Bayern still generated more expected goals than PSG, but the French side finished with the kind of ruthless edge that turned a shot-heavy night into a 5-4 result and tied the match for the fifth-highest scoring Champions League game of all time.
That made the evening sound even bigger than it looked on paper. Griffin Wong called it “The greatest match in football history,” and it was easy to understand why after a first leg that kept changing shape until the final whistle. Paris Saint-Germain’s win was only the latest twist in a matchup between two of the competition’s most productive attacks, both of them among the best in shots, expected goals, touches in the box and finishing.
Bayern’s home record says the second leg should not be this open. Munich had lost only once at the Allianz Arena all season before this match, a 2-1 Bundesliga defeat to Augsburg in which Manuel Neuer was sidelined and Jamal Musiala came on as a substitute. Bayern also had allowed more than two goals at home only twice in any competition before Tuesday, and had scored at least three in all but one home match. Those trends make the return leg look like Bayern’s to control, even after PSG’s surge in Paris.
That tension is why the betting markets are split almost down the middle. Bayern are a -160 favorite to win the return leg at DraftKings Sportsbook, while PSG are +320. Both teams are listed at -110 to advance to the final, a sign that the first leg did not really settle anything despite the scoreline. The over-under is 4.5 goals, and the anytime scorer board reflects the kind of game this could become again, with Harry Kane at -150, Nicolas Jackson at +115, Luis Díaz at +135, Michael Olise at +150, Ousmane Dembélé at +165, Gonçalo Ramos at +180, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia at +190, Bradley Barcola at +210, Desiré Doué at +210, Jamal Musiala at +225 and Lennart Karl at +225.
What happens next is clear enough. Bayern get PSG at home on Wednesday afternoon in the U.S., and they need to turn a one-goal deficit into a place in Budapest. Musiala’s absence from the starting picture only sharpens the question around Bayern’s attack, because the return leg is not just about chasing a result. It is about whether a side that usually looks built for control can live with another night that turns into a track meet.