South Africa’s private-sector activity picked up in April, with the headline purchasing managers’ index rising to 51.6 from 50.8 in March, its highest reading since August 2022. It was the second straight month the index sat above 50, pointing to expansion in Africa’s most industrialised economy.
The gain came as firms reported a sharp increase in input costs, driven largely by higher fuel prices and supplier charges. Cost inflation climbed to a 30-month high, and businesses lifted selling prices at the fastest pace since August 2024, even as demand improved for the first time in three months. Some customers brought forward purchases because they feared further supply disruptions, helping to drive the strongest rise in output in almost a year.
David Owen, who commented on the survey, said a sharp increase in fuel prices was adding to the short-term risks facing companies as overall input cost pressures soared to a 30-month high. He also said that with firms raising charges at the fastest pace since August 2024, it remained to be seen how demand would hold up once stockpiling eased.
The PMI is a high-frequency gauge of economic momentum and often tracks broader shifts in gross domestic product, so April’s reading matters beyond a single survey. It lands at a moment when global crude prices have been pushed above $100 per barrel since February by tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, a squeeze that is feeding quickly into African economies that rely on imported fuel. South Africa’s inflation edged up to 3.1 percent in March from 3.0 percent in February, and the government has extended fuel tax relief until June, keeping the petrol levy reduction at R3 per litre and deepening diesel support at an expected cost of about R17.2 billion.
That cushion may soften the blow for now, but the report shows companies are already passing higher costs through to customers while trying to preserve activity. Employment growth also quickened in April, suggesting firms have not yet absorbed the pressure by cutting staff, even as they face a tougher pricing environment. Kenya’s separate PMI story was weaker, rising to 49.4 in April from 47.7 in March but staying below 50 for a second month of contraction, while inflation there climbed to 5.6 percent, the highest since May 2024. For South Africa, the question is less whether demand has returned than how long it can survive if fuel-driven costs keep climbing.