The Vancouver Canucks will go into Tuesday’s NHL draft lottery with the best odds of landing the first overall pick, but only just. After finishing last in the league at 25-49-8, Vancouver has a 25.5 per cent chance of winning the draw that will decide who starts June 26 in Buffalo with the top choice.
The lottery will be held at the NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, N.J., where four ping pong balls will be pulled from a machine to produce the four-number combination that sends one team to the front of the line. All 16 teams that missed the playoffs are in the mix, though only the bottom 11 can wind up with the first pick because no club can move up more than 10 spots. That leaves Chicago, the next best option at 13.5 per cent, followed by the New York Rangers at 11.5 per cent, Calgary at 9.5 per cent, Toronto at 8.5 per cent and Winnipeg at 6.5 per cent.
For Vancouver, the draw carries a small piece of history too. The Canucks have never drafted first overall, a distinction they share with Calgary and Winnipeg. Toronto has done it twice, taking Wendel Clark in 1985 and Auston Matthews in 2016.
The top of this year’s class is expected to come down to forwards Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg. McKenna has 15 goals and 36 assists in 35 games with Penn State and added 14 points, including four goals and 10 assists, for Canada’s bronze-medal team at the 2026 world junior championship. Stenberg spent last season with Frolunda HC in the Swedish Hockey League, where he put up 33 points, including 11 goals and 22 assists, in 43 games before helping Sweden win world junior gold with 10 points, including four goals and six assists.
Last year’s lottery showed how fast the standings can be upended. The New York Islanders leapt over nine teams to win it and used the pick on Matthew Schaefer, the 18-year-old from Hamilton, Ont., who led rookie defencemen with 59 points in 82 games. Vancouver has never had that kind of luck. Tuesday is its chance to change that, even if the odds say otherwise.