India is burning more coal to keep the lights on as a nationwide heatwave pushes up electricity demand and the war between the United States and Iran disrupts fuel supplies. Coal-fired power generation rose in April to an average of 164.9 gigawatts, up from 160.7 gigawatts a year earlier, and the share of coal in the country’s power mix is likely to rise further this year.
Heatwave conditions above 40-45 degrees C across several places in India have lifted power demand, said Andre Lambine, who described the surge as a direct response to the weather. On April 27, all 50 of the world’s hottest cities were in India, underscoring how quickly demand is climbing as temperatures stay punishingly high.
The pressure is hitting other parts of the energy system too. High liquefied natural gas prices have made gas-based generation less viable, while cement producers are turning to coal after supplies of petroleum coke were disrupted by the conflict in West Asia. That means coal, which already generates over 70% of India’s electricity, is becoming even more central to meeting demand at a time when the country is already under heavy climate scrutiny.
India is the world’s third-largest carbon dioxide emitter and has pledged to cut the emissions intensity of its economy by 47% by 2035 and reach net-zero by 2070. Yet emissions continue to rise, even if more slowly than in past decades, and the latest jump in coal use shows how hard it remains for the country to balance growth, heat and cleaner-energy goals.
There is also a weather risk hanging over the outlook. If the El Nino climate effect occurs, coal-fired power generation in India could grow by up to 10% year-on-year, adding another layer of strain to a system already being pushed by heat, higher fuel costs and disrupted supplies.