Exit polls released on April 30 pointed to a BJP edge over the ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, after the state recorded a 92.65% turnout in the second phase of voting. The numbers came as polls closed across a set of key state elections that also included Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
West Bengal voted in two phases, on April 23 and April 29, and the exit poll picture suggested the BJP had made gains in a state where the Trinamool Congress won decisively in 2021 even though most polls then had called a close contest. This time, the signs were different: the BJP was also forecast to secure a clear majority in Assam, where a BJP alliance has ruled for the last ten years.
Elsewhere, the exit polls pointed to a return of the ruling DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu and a comeback by the opposition alliance led by the Congress in Kerala. The spread of outcomes underscored how Narendra Modi's BJP is pushing to make inroads in three states where it has never held power, while trying to defend ground in West Bengal against a party that has already shown it can defy the pollsters.
The caveat is familiar in India: exit polls are often contested, and West Bengal has offered a recent warning. In 2021, most exit polls predicted a tight race between the BJP and the Trinamool Congress, but the final result was a decisive victory for the ruling party. That history leaves the latest forecast as a strong indication, not a verdict, even if it is the clearest sign yet of how the contest is tilting in one of India's most watched political battlegrounds.
For the BJP, the key question now is whether the April 30 forecasts hold up in counting. For the Trinamool Congress, the record turnout and the memories of 2021 make the margin in West Bengal Elections the issue that will matter most when the votes are finally tallied.