Aston Villa host Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday night with a chance to move one win away from qualification for next year's Champions League. Spurs arrive having lost their last four matches against Villa, and the hosts have already beaten them twice this season by 2-1 scores.
Villa's first 2-1 win over Spurs came in the league, the second in the FA Cup, and both were at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. That record gives Sunday's meeting a familiar edge, even though the stakes are higher for Villa after a 1-0 loss at Fulham last weekend and a 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final on Thursday night.
Morgan Rogers scored in Villa's recent 4-3 win against Sunderland at Villa Park and now has 12 goals across all competitions. If Villa can carry that threat into Sunday, they will keep alive a season that has already pushed them toward the kind of finish usually associated with fourth or fifth place in the Premier League. For Spurs, Pedro Porro's first goal of the season in a 2-2 draw against Brighton a fortnight ago was one of few bright spots in a side that has won just two of its last nine meetings with Villa going back to 2021.
The numbers around the match are less forgiving for Tottenham. They began a run of six straight wins over Villa in 2015, but Villa were relegated into the Championship in 2017 and the teams did not meet for two years. Since 2021, the balance has shifted, and Villa have taken control of this fixture at the sharp end of the season.
Spurs also remain short-handed. Xavi Simons has suffered a ruptured ACL and joins Gugliemo Vicario, Cristian Romero, Mohammed Kudus, Pape Mate Sarr, Wilson Odobert, Destiny Udogie, Lucas Bergvall, Ben Davies and Dejan Kulusevski in the treatment room. James Maddison has been on the bench, but there has been little to suggest he is fully match-fit, while Dominic Solanke is also among the serious injury concerns. Aston Villa have their own problems too: Amadou Onana started the Nottingham Forest match but had to come off after 55 minutes, Alysson will not be ready in time, and Boubacar Kamara almost certainly will not play again this season.
Villa's recent form has been patchy, with four wins in their last 14 league games, but the equation is simple enough. Beat Spurs on Sunday night and the Champions League comes into view. Fail to do it, and the race stays open a little longer.