Kamala Harris opened the early Democratic field with 50 percent support in a new Harvard/Harris poll released Tuesday, far ahead of her nearest listed rival and up sharply from earlier this year. The poll gives Gavin Newsom 22 percent, Josh Shapiro 9 percent, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8 percent and J.B. Pritzker 6 percent.
Harris’s 50 percent mark was up from 41 percent in March and 39 percent in January and February, according to the survey of 2,745 registered voters taken April 23-26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.87 percentage points. Five percent said they would back someone else. Robert Y. Shapiro said the numbers show Harris is a credible candidate, and Michael Bailey called them impressive.
The result matters because the campaign conversation is already moving, even though the first primary votes will not be cast until early 2028 and prospective candidates could begin announcing in less than a year, after the midterm elections. Harris launched her 2020 campaign in January 2019, a reminder that the political calendar can start far earlier than the voting does.
The polling strength, though, sits alongside a different measure of where Harris stands: Kalshi’s prediction market gave her a 7.8 percent chance of winning the nomination, while Polymarket put her at about 8 percent. Shapiro said the gains could help with campaign contributions and could be further evidence of Harris’s strength, but he also noted that other potential candidates may be gaining ground among Democratic voters and that her edge now is name recognition. Bailey was blunter, saying it would be naive for Harris to think she would have a cakewalk and that the betting markets suggest a far less certain race.
The poll did not include all possible contenders. Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker and Andy Beshear were among the names not asked about, a gap that makes the standings useful but incomplete. Even so, the survey is the clearest early sign yet that a kamala harris potential 2028 run begins from a commanding position, even if the real test will not arrive until the field fully forms and the race turns from speculation into campaigns.