John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are entering the final month of their Republican runoff with Donald Trump still sitting on the sidelines, and the delay is becoming part of the race itself. Trump said after the March 3 primary that he would decide on an endorsement “soon,” but he still has not.
Cornyn is arguing that time is running out for Paxton to survive another runoff the way he did before. On primary night, the senator said the GOP runoff electorate has never faced a well-funded blitz focused on Paxton’s scandals, and he is betting that argument lands before voters cast their ballots. Cornyn also enters the closing stretch with the financial edge that campaign aides hope will make the difference: he brought in about $9 million across his campaign and joint fundraising committees in the first quarter of 2026, while Paxton raised roughly $2.2 million. Cornyn ended the period with nearly $8.2 million in cash on hand, compared with more than $2.6 million for Paxton. The pro-Cornyn Texans for a Conservative Majority raised about $9.5 million, far more than the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC’s roughly $2.1 million.
The numbers matter because Paxton has already shown he can win a runoff by a wide margin. He beat state Rep. Dan Branch by 27 points in 2014 and George P. Bush by 36 points in 2022, and both of those races saw turnout collapse after the primary. In Paxton’s two prior runoff victories, participation fell to 5.4% of registered voters. He also had marquee help then, with Ted Cruz backing him in 2014 and Trump endorsing him in 2022.
But this runoff is not unfolding in quite the same way. University of Texas polling showed Paxton’s unfavorable rating among Republican voters falling from 22% in December 2025 to 18% in February 2026, suggesting that the attacks aimed at him have not yet hardened the race in Cornyn’s favor. Cornyn has already had nearly a year and tens of millions of dollars to make the case against Paxton’s scandals, and the fact that Paxton remains competitive despite that effort is a warning sign for the senator. Nine congressional Republican primaries are also headed to runoffs, but this one is the race drawing the most national attention.
What happens next is straightforward. Trump’s endorsement could still reset the race in a single statement, but Cornyn is trying to close before that happens and before low-turnout runoff voters settle in. The winner will face Democrat James Talarico.