A CBC poll released by Janet Brown Opinion Research suggests Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party would likely win an even stronger majority if Alberta voters went to the polls today. The survey also shows the UCP continuing to hold its popularity with Alberta supporters, while the New Democratic Party under Naheed Nenshi is slipping badly.
The numbers land at a politically useful moment for Smith. A CBC story said the most popular political leader in the province appears to be Prime Minister Mark Carney, even as Brown’s polling points to a province still leaning heavily toward the UCP. The report also said the UCP may call an early election while it remains on a roll.
That makes the result more than a snapshot. It suggests Smith’s party is benefiting from a political landscape in which voters may dislike some of what the government is doing but still prefer Smith to Nenshi by a wide margin. The CBC report tied that gap to a blunt conclusion: the NDP’s biggest problem right now is its leader.
The timing matters because Smith’s government is facing criticism over policy, especially in health care. The article described her government as wreaking a policy disaster on Alberta, and said other polling shows voters do not approve of its actions in health care. That leaves the opposition trying to turn dissatisfaction into votes, and so far it is not working.
Climenhaga wrote on April 14 that if Albertans do not like what the UCP is doing but still favour Smith over Nenshi by a significant margin, the obvious conclusion is that the NDP’s biggest problem is its leader. Brown’s poll appears to bear that out. The governing party is not only holding on; it looks stronger than it does now.
For Smith, the danger is not the next poll. It is the possibility that her party will treat this one as a green light and go early before the political mood changes. For Nenshi, the question is starker: whether he can reconnect with voters quickly enough to stop the gap from turning into a rout.