The Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers open a series on the evening game with a first-place matchup that puts Martin Pérez and Casey Mize on the mound. First pitch is at 7:00 ET.
Pérez is starting for Atlanta after signing a minors deal with the Braves, making the club, then being designated for assignment and re-signed. He brings a 2.70 ERA over 23.1 innings pitched, but the numbers underneath are less secure: a 4.60 expected ERA, an 85.9 percent strand rate and a.197 BABIP. Detroit will try to make him pay for that gap. Javy Báez is 0.588 OPS in 20 at-bats against Pérez, Spencer Torkelson has a.606 OPS in 21 at-bats and Matt Vierling is at.343 in 14 at-bats. Gleyber Torres has handled him far better, posting a 1.087 OPS in 22 at-bats.
Mize gives the Tigers a starter who has looked like a different pitcher than the one who debuted in 2020. He has a 2.51 ERA, a 2.95 FIP and a 1.151 WHIP, with 10.0 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings. His 3.22 expected ERA suggests the performance has not been all smoke and mirrors. Atlanta has some history to lean on in the box score: Matt Olson is 3 for 6 against Mize with one home run and a 1.625 OPS, and Mike Yastrzemski is 2 for 3 against him. The Braves enter as the league’s top scoring offense, while Detroit ranks 15th in runs per game.
The real divide may come after the starters leave. Detroit’s bullpen owns a 4.36 ERA, worse than all but 10 teams, and Atlanta’s clearest path is to force the Tigers into relief early. That matters because Detroit’s rotation has been one of the best in the majors so far, and Mize is on pace for his best season since his debut. Pérez’s surface numbers have bought Atlanta time, but his batted-ball luck and strand rate point to the possibility that the evening becomes more difficult once hitters see him a second and third time through. This is the kind of game that can turn on one inning, and both clubs have the arms and the lineups to make it happen fast.