March 25: UBS met with UnitedHealth management and, following that meeting, reiterated a Buy rating on UnitedHealth Group and set a $410 price target for unh stock.
UBS said its Buy reiteration and $410 target followed the March 25 management meeting and that the note implies stronger earnings early in 2026, a view UBS tied to historical Medicare Advantage and Part D seasonality.
65% of 2026 EPS were reaffirmed by management to occur in the first half of the year, with 35% in the second half, a split UBS cited as the explicit earnings-seasonality assumption for 2026.
Management said it is comfortable with the current first-quarter medical loss ratio consensus in the low-to-mid 85% range, and UBS interpreted that comfort as reducing the risk of an immediate downside surprise to near-term MLR expectations versus the street.
UBS added that the medical loss ratio slope across quarters is expected to be less than last year, noting last year’s Q1-to-Q4 MLR spread was about 7.5% due to Part D.
Management and UBS also flagged unit-level timing: Optum Insight is expected to show more back-end-loaded performance, while OptumRx should absorb more upfront investments in the first half as the company onboards new contracts.
UnitedHealth did not announce any operational changes or provide a timetable for updated guidance or an earnings release in the UBS meeting; the note contains no date for when management will next report or revise the seasonality assumptions publicly.