Scattered showers and storms are moving through eastern Iowa overnight, and a few of the stronger cells could bring gusty winds and hail. Widespread severe weather is not expected overnight, but the rain and thunder will keep the forecast active into Monday morning as lows settle into the mid to upper 50s.
For Monday, the quiet period may not last long. Storm activity is expected to diminish late in the morning and early in the afternoon before the atmosphere has a chance to recharge itself, then storms are forecast to redevelop between 2 PM and 4 PM and continue through the evening. Highs will reach the mid 60s to low 70s, and some of the afternoon storms could become strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes possible early in the afternoon.
The line between a stormy day and a severe one is thin here, and Monday's setup leans toward the latter. The storms are expected to gradually organize into a line as they move east, which shifts the main threat toward straight-line wind. Even so, a few spin-up tornadoes remain possible within that line, and the storms are expected to exit the area between 7 PM and 9 PM.
After Monday, the weather pattern turns quieter. Tuesday through the end of the week should bring cooler and drier conditions, with highs in the 60s and lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. A few scattered showers are still possible Thursday afternoon and evening, though they are expected to be on the lighter side.
For anyone tracking the columbia mo weather outlook, the answer to the immediate question is clear: Monday carries the greatest risk for severe storms, especially in the afternoon, before conditions settle down and a cooler stretch takes over for the rest of the week.